Early Adopter Disease


Not quite dead yet.

I’ve been accused of being an early adopter of technology and social media platforms.

But I’m really not.

Here are the stages of technology adoption and the percentage of the population in each stage, according to Everett Rogers Technology Adoption Lifecycle mode:

  • Innovators – 2.5 percent
  • Early Adopters – 13.5 percent
  • Early Majority – 34 percent
  • Late Majority – 34 percent
  • Laggards – 16 percent

I fall into the Early Majority category.  I don’t jump into new technology or platforms until I see evidence that they are working.  This is also the advice that I counsel most of my clients – and clearly the path taken by 84 percent of the population.

The reason I bring this up is because Innovators and Early Adopters are crucial in getting technology into the mainstream, but lousy at predicting their demise.  Because for this select group, the demise is usually the time when the technology is embraced by everyone else.  In other words the mainstream.  Let’s call it Early Adopter Disease.

Once a technology goes mainstream or even hits a bump in the road, this is the group predicting the end.  Haven’t we all seen the headlines declaring “Blogging is Dead” or “Twitter is Dead” or “INSERT TECHNOLOGY HERE is Dead”?  Early adopters don’t like it when their new technology is no longer new – and even worse – popular.

This has started to happen with Facebook.  Lately I’ve been reading social media and marketing experts (many of whom are early adopters) declaring that Facebook is on the decline because of a report this month that user growth has slowed and even declined in the U.S. and Canada.

Here is a post by small business consultant Gene Marks who argued that:

“… Facebook could easily become like MySpace, Palm, cassette tapes, dial-up modems, Sinead O’Connor, Fotomats, dot-matrix printers, public phones and Sharon Stone.  Things that have seen better days and have, for the most part, faded away into obscurity.”

Believe it or not, I agree with Marks.  Facebook will, eventually, go away.  In fact, I guarantee it.  All technology does.

But Marks and others like him miss the point.  Marketing and communications happens now – in the present.  And Facebook – at this moment in time and in the foreseeable future – is the largest communications platform in the world.  It has 700 million users, generates more web traffic than any other website (including Google) and is the fastest and easiest way to potentially reach millions of people – or just a crucial few who want to hear what you have to say.

That’s the beauty of Facebook.  Is their Facebook fatigue?  Yes, probably.  But with one in three internet users on the platform, Facebook isn’t going any where in the near future.  People will probably go in and out of it – taking breaks and vacations from it – much like people do now with the Internet, mobile phones and television.

And, yes, Facebook will eventually become obsolete just like cassette tapes.

But let’s take a closer look at cassette tapes for a moment.  From the 1970s to the late 1990s, it was one of the two largest formats for prerecorded music (along with LPs).  In 1990, at the height of the tape cassette industry, 442 million tape cassettes were sold worldwide.  To play these hundreds of millions of cassettes sold each year, people bought tens of millions of cassette players: home stereo players, car stereos and portal players (like the Walkman).  It was a multi-billion dollar business.

If you were a recording artist or tape cassette manufacturer and you opted out of selling your music on cassette tapes or stopped building cassette players because early adopters were declaring the format dead because of the introduction of the compact disc in the late 1980s, you would have missed out on a lot of business.

And about Sinead O’Connor.  Her first two albums sold a total of 9.5 million copies.  That sounds like success to me.

Links:

Wikipedia chart of Everett Rogers Technology Adoption Lifecycle

Gene Marks post “Would I Invest in Facebook? No, thank you”

Fox News: “Facebook on the Decline”

“One in Three Internet Users on Facebook”

Wikipedia “Compact Tape” entry

31 Responses to “Early Adopter Disease”

  1. There are other new platforms born every day. Some of them become more attractive to some FB users and start to be a competition to FB. For example, Pinterest is the fast growing network right now that attracts mostly women. After you tried Pinterest, FB can become boring very fast.

  2. I’m really enjoying the theme/design of your site.
    Do you ever run into any internet browser compatibility problems?
    A number of my blog audience have complained about my site not
    operating correctly in Explorer but looks great in Opera.
    Do you have any tips to help fix this issue?

  3. 5 inch hose clamps that may come with the heaters or may be bought at a pool supply store.
    Though it might sound like a good thing, the bad thing about it is that it also increases the incapability of the planet
    to reflect back the sun’s heat, thus, making the planet hotter than normal.

    This can bring down the price of a solar panel by 50 percent of
    the original price.

  4. You ought to be a part of a contest for one of the highest quality
    blogs on the net. I most certainly will highly recommend this web site!

  5. Alyhough there is a head start from everyyone else yohr documents
    will still undergo the accurate procedure. Canadian Grants Business Center
    continually updates the info it compiles for the government funding
    programs around to Western Canadians located in Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
    It is much easier foor entrepreneurs to have grants in lieu of getting bank loans.

  6. Split-testing is a method of testing different variables on your site, thank you page,
    squeeze page, optin box, and anything else you can think of.
    Sure, you might make use of single-page up and back to
    the one directing the click, but make sure there is a “back”
    click available. From keyword selection and strategies, to
    linking method and other site and SEO applications, you will be able
    to understand better how this things works.

  7. If you are going for finest contents like myself, only pay a quick visit this web page all the
    time as it gives feature contents, thanks

  8. This promise also involves a set of values that will mark the relationship, like fidelity and the promise
    of a future family. Deadly Text Game Mistake
    #2: Making Your First Text To Her BORING. Regardless, if you have
    been to bed with more than five different people,
    not a stretch in this day and AIDS’ er, age, than you
    have already been exposed to a virus that will not only haunt
    you for the rest of your life, but will also cause
    ugly, puss-dripping sores on your private parts.

  9. Admission is a great deal at only $4 per person ages 1 and up.
    One of the ways in which it is unique is how it handles deck building.

    Bonuses from the lab and guild modify your base percentage.

  10. chanel tote bags online
    There’s definately a lot to learn about this topic. I love all of the points you have made.

  11. I’ve learn some good stuff here. Certainly price bookmarking for revisiting.
    I surprise how so much effort you put to create this kind of fantastic informative site.

  12. If some one wishes expert view on the topic of blogging and site-building then i
    suggest him/her to go to see this website, Keep up the fastidious work.

  13. Don’t name your baby with terms that have slang meanings related to
    parts of the human anatomy. The baby is not allowed to stay in the tub even for only a minute when taking a bath.
    Do not wake her for night feedings during the 5
    hour stretch.

  14. Understanding and being able to read defensive coverages is a key component to any successful
    offense in Madden. Throw in Bad Associations with Your Home Life, And.
    So what can we do to move through the pain and
    anguish of being betrayed by our spouse.

  15. I’m not that muhh of a online reader to be honest but your blogvs really nice, keep iit up!
    I’ll go ahead and bookmark your website to come
    back down the road. Cheers

  16. Fastidious answer back in return of this query with firm arguments and describing the whole thing regarding that.

  17. Hi to all, how is all, I think every one is getting more from this web site, and your views are fastidious for new users.

  18. The investigation has since been painted by John Mc – Cain and Palin backers as a purely partisan exercise, particularly because
    the committee chair, state senator Hollis French, is
    an Anchorage Democrat who made several seemingly prejudicial statements to the media early on, including that the probe
    could yield an “October surprise” right before the election.
    Will the King company decide to release the popular candy-crushing game for KFHD
    owners, or will they stick with the variety of devices
    the game is available on these days. 5% of dogs of this breed have some degree of hearing loss.

  19. Hello, always i used to check blog posts here in the early hours in the break
    of day, as i love to find out more and more.

  20. Wonderful beat ! I wish to apprentice whilst you amend our site, how could
    i subscribee for a weblog site? The account aided me a appropriate deal.
    I were a little bit acquainted of this your broadcast offered vivid
    transparennt idea

  21. If you find you’re searching for a quality espresso or cappuccino maker and would like to keep your
    wallet from depleting, consider the Krups XP5240. It tends to make easy cooking and it can be simple around
    the wallet. The good thing about this rice cooker will
    be the automatic switch-mode technology. You might still pick a fight and divert the problem, right.
    At Steam Showers and Saunas they believe that many individual must be given the tools and technology to ease their body of stress, muscle tensions and the entire body aches.
    The AK, being probably the most powerful automatic rifle in the game, accordingly includes a
    lot of recoil. The balconies use a complete view of
    the best establishments in the location.

  22. I believe everything posted was actually very reasonable. But, think on this, suppose you were
    to create a awesome title? I mean, I don’t wish to tell you how to run your
    blog, however what if you added a title that makes people desire more?
    I mean Early Adopter Disease | HighTalk is kinda vanilla. You ought to look
    at Yahoo’s front page and see how they write article headlines to grab people to click.
    You might add a related video or a pic or two to get readers interested about what you’ve got to say.
    Just my opinion, it could make your posts a little bit more interesting.

  23. If some one needs expert view concerning running a blog after that i propose
    him/her to pay a quick visit this web site, Keep up
    the good work.

  24. The firms need to hire sensible and professional writers to generate the apt content and articles.

    The diagnostic program GENERIC is designed for the legislation based diagnostics, specially targeted
    for emission related fault codes. By Search Engine Optimization, a web page can go higher up the Google rankings,
    thus increasing its visibility to the target audience.

  25. It’s very simple to find out any matter on net as compared to textbooks, as
    I found this piece of writing at this web page.

  26. Perhaps, for them the best means of travel would be by air, followed by a BWI taxi service.

    Lasers are mysterious and set a club-like atmosphere as you get ready
    to party the night away. These vehicles provide customers with a
    novel experience and can inspire sales by adding additional target markets to the mix.

  27. For one of the most part a restart gets round the problem.
    The institution marriage will depend on interpersonal relationship where different individual with various background
    culture and belief form a union. Sam calculates the estimated
    profit, if he contains the deal, to get between $325,000.
    Real estate investors who buy properties directly from motivated sellers
    must adopt wholesale real estate investment inside their business.
    This is a long instance, and should be pretty easy with your new gear – aside from the
    final boss. In 1972 when ex-WWII bomber pilot George Mc – Govern ran for president, he said if elected
    he’d push for any law requiring every member of congress voting for the war for everyone in it.
    Some items works extremely well by many professional along with the game won’t necessarily suggest the main one you’ve been waiting for.

  28. Sex Chatroulette rooms can accommodate large numbers of people,
    who can read and respond to each other’s messages.
    You can compose it to present yourself in the best light
    but it’s far better that the photo doesn’t look too staged.

    Depending on their target market and just like
    candy, escorts come at a variety of looks and personalities, taking into consideration the different preferences of their
    prospective clients.

  29. Jurassic Park Builder has just received a mega-update, which adds a totally
    new aquatic section for the park. In reality, for the the majority of part, everything goes just
    as it should. Have you been looking for something
    a little bit unusual for your Black – Berry.

  30. It’s very easy to find out any topic on net as compared to books, as I found this paragraph at this web page.

  31. For these versions youshould expect seller downloadable payroll tax update tables.

    70 per share, excluding automobiles, building your sales situation. Some things we are Internet marketing
    but are 3 ways that build together to focus our job search.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 6,399 other followers

%d bloggers like this: